ELF playoff race: Here are the projections

After ELF Week 9 the playoff race is tighter than ever. We break down the current playoff probabilities for each team:

First things first: at this stage, no team has officially clinched a playoff spot. However, things are looking very good for the undefeated newcomer Nordic Storm (7-0), who currently have, according to ELO ratings, a 99.8% chance of making the playoffs. Right behind them are the Vienna Vikings (7-1) at 99.7%, the Munich Ravens (7-1) at 96.8%, and Stuttgart Surge (6-2) at 96.7%. All four teams currently lead their individual divisions and therefore have high odds of qualifying, since division leaders automatically advance to the playoffs (see the current playoff picture).

A bit further behind are the Prague Lions (4-4) at 42.7% and the Paris Musketeers (5-3) at 42.2%. These two teams top the crowded mid-table group, which still includes five teams with realistic playoff hopes. Close behind are the defending champion Rhein Fire (4-4) and the Madrid Bravos (5-3), each with a 37.6% chance, followed by the Raiders Tirol (5-3) at 33.2%.

At the bottom of this group are the Wroclaw Panthers. Despite a solid 5-3 record, they are facing what is likely the toughest remaining schedule in the league. According to ELO ratings, they have just a 12.3% chance of making the playoffs, with these tough matchups ahead: Vikings, Ravens, Vikings, Ravens.

The lowest playoff chances belong to Berlin Thunder (3-5) at 0.9% and Frankfurt Galaxy (3-5) at 0.3%. Out of playoff contention are the Fehérvár Enthroners (0-8), the Helvetic Mercenaries (0-7), the Hamburg Sea Devils (2-6), and the Cologne Centurions (0-8).

The final weeks of the regular season will decide who advances to the playoffs. It’s crunch time in the ELF.

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