ELF Playoff Race 2025: Closer than ever before
Nils Rosjat & Cara Iden
In 2025 ELF fans are witnessing the most competitive and dramatic title race since the league was founded.
The race to Stuttgart is on
As the European League of Football enters Week 9, we find ourselves deep in the most wide-open, tightly packed, drama-filled title race the league has ever seen. Forget predictability – 2025 is a chaotic cocktail of elite parity, playoff volatility, and potential historic narratives.
The title race? It’s not just close - it’s statistically unprecedented. At the center stands rookie sensation Nordic Storm, still undefeated at 6-0. A new power emerging at the perfect time - in a season where no single contender can pull away.
WATCH THE TOP 10 PLAYS OF WEEK 8 HERE!
What makes 2025 so special?
Let’s start with the raw numbers: After simulating the rest of the season 100,000 times using team ELO ratings - an ELO rating is a skill rating used in many games and sports - nine teams emerge with at least a 25 percent chance to reach the playoffs - a historical high. Among them are Vienna, Stuttgart, Paris, Munich, Rhein Fire, Madrid, Prague, Tirol, and even Panthers Wrocław.
But it’s not just quantity – it’s about quality. The standard deviation of the top five ELO ratings in Week 9 is just 21.4 points. To put that into perspective: in 2024, the top five teams were separated by 59.6 points; in 2023, it was still tighter at 48.8 points.
At 21.4 points in 2025, we’ve reached a whole new level – it’s the first time ever that all five elite teams are virtually identical on paper. In other words, we don’t have one clear favorite this year – we have five. And yet, not a single team has secured a playoff spot.
Even the heavyweights can’t be separated
The best part? The top teams have faced each other multiple times, with victories going both ways:
- First the Vienna Vikings beat Rhein Fire, then the defending champions hit back in the rematch
- Rhein Fire took down the Paris Musketeers first, followed by Paris returning the favor
- Stuttgart Surge defeated the Munich Ravens initially, but the Ravens responded with a last-minute win in the rematch
While not every game has been a one-score thriller, the trend is clear: no top team has a clear edge over another. They’re evenly matched. They’re beating each other.
This has created a playoff picture where even ELO simulations struggle to find a consistent No. 1 seed. Nordic Storm leads the way with a 57.4 percent chance of earning the top spot – but Vienna Vikings, Munich Ravens, and Stuttgart Surge all remain in striking distance.
WATCH STUTTGART SURGE AT MUNICH RAVENS HERE!
Compared to previous years? It’s a whole new game
In 2023, two teams – Rhein Fire and Vienna – went undefeated through the regular season. The rest tried to keep up. Four teams finished with 10 or more wins. The Wild Card race? Solid, but mostly settled by Week 10.
2024 followed a similar script. Vienna (12-0), Stuttgart (11-1), and Rhein Fire (11-1) had already pulled away by mid-season. The gap between contenders and the rest was clear by this stage.
Now, in 2025, the landscape looks markedly different. Five teams are currently projected to finish with 10 or more wins. Five others are tracking between seven and nine victories — all firmly in the Wild Card mix. The gap between elite and average has narrowed.
Final Stretch: Here’s what’s coming
With every division race still technically open and half the league chasing just two Wild Card spots, the final weeks of the 2025 regular season are set to deliver high-stakes matchups, win-or-go-home showdowns, and perhaps some heartbreak.
The Vienna Vikings may look like the league’s most complete team - but they’ve shown they can be beaten. Stuttgart wants revenge after last year’s playoff disappointment. Paris and Munich are peaking. Rhein Fire is lurking. And dark horses like Madrid and Prague? Still in the hunt - and dangerous.
In 2025, there’s no clear path to the Championship Game in Stuttgart – there are nine. Get ready: the real drama begins now.