With one week left in the regular season, a tight race has broken out for the last available playoff spot. A total of four teams enter Week 14 with an identical record of 7-4. What needs to happen for these teams to make the jump to the playoffs and what predictable chance does each team have? Let's take a closer look.

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The Raiders Tirol control their own destiny. In the last game of the regular season they will travel to the Friedlich-Ludwig-Jahn Sportpark to face the Berlin Thunder. Since the Raiders lost against the Frankfurt Galaxy in Week 13, both teams will meet with an identical record of 7-4.

In order to make the playoffs, the Raiders Tirol must be successful in Berlin or they are out of the playoff race. Should Rhein Fire also win their game against the Leipzig Kings, the best point difference would be the tiebreaker for the playoffs. In that case, the Raiders would have the clear advantage on their side with a difference of currently +162 compared to +35.

The matchup with Berlin Thunder is predicted to be very tight giving the Raiders Tirol a 49.8% chance to make the playoffs.

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The Frankfurt Galaxy won their game against the Raiders Tirol, but in the end could only bring a narrow lead over the finish line. Since the first matchup of the two teams went to the Raiders with a slightly larger margin, Frankfurt Galaxy loses the conference tiebreaker and is only in third place with an identical record.

In order for Frankfurt Galaxy to keep the chance of making the playoffs, a win against Stuttgart Surge next weekend is a must. But that alone is not enough. In addition, the Raiders Tirol must lose against the Berlin Thunder, so that the Galaxy can secure second place in their conference through the better record.

In that case, it would come back to the comparison of the point difference with Berlin Thunder and, if Rhein Fire wins their game, also with Rhein Fire. Here Frankfurt Galaxy has a better chance with +115 points compared to +66 (Berlin Thunder) and +35 (Rhein Fire).

Interestingly, however, the initial situation has not changed that much for Frankfurt Galaxy compared to winning the tiebreaker against the Raiders Tirol. Since the direct comparison with Rhein Fire has been lost, they would have had to avoid a two-way comparison in the fight for the playoffs and thus hope for a win by Berlin Thunder.

Since the starting position for Frankfurt Galaxy is very promising with a defeat of the Raiders Tirol, they still manage a strong playoff probability of 44.2%.

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Berlin Thunder gets what they have been working towards for so long: a final match for the playoffs against the Raiders Tirol in their final home game. In order to win this match, they have to get their first win against a team with a winning record next weekend.

Should the Berliners overcome this hurdle, there are two possibilities to enter the playoffs. First, both Frankfurt Galaxy and Rhein Fire could lose their games. In that case, Berlin Thunder would automatically qualify for the playoffs. On the other hand, should at least one of the two teams record a victory, participation in the playoffs will again be decided by the points difference.

Here, Berlin (+66) has relatively good chances compared to Rhein Fire (+35), but as soon as Frankfurt Galaxy (+115) has the same record, an exceptionally clear victory against the Raiders would have to be achieved.

The chances for the Berlin Thunder are still alive, but presuppose a defeat of Frankfurt Galaxy by the winless Stuttgart Surge. Thus, the probability of the playoffs is only 5.7%.

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Rhein Fire will face the Leipzig Kings in their last game and desperately need a win to keep a minimal chance of making the playoffs. In the end, depending on the outcome of the other games, it will come down to the points difference of the other teams.

‍Frankfurt Galaxy (+115) and Raiders Tirol (+162) have an almost unbeatable lead in this regard. This means that from Rhein Fire's point of view, they have to hope for a defeat of these two teams.

In reverse, Berlin Thunder would then win against the Raiders Tirol. In order to survive in the comparison of the point difference with Berlin Thunder (+66), Rhein Fire (+35) must therefore rely on a close victory of the Berlin Thunder and at the same time win with at least 32 points more against the Leipzig Kings.

Rhein Fire has a 0.3% chance of making the playoffs in their first season.

All playoff scenarios and the current playoff picture can also be found on our official stats website.

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